Elected Chairman of Broad Street Ward Club

Very pleased & proud to have been elected the 2012 Chairman of Broad Street Ward Club

www.broadstreetwardclub.org

Information on my Books

All the books are available in either print or e-book format

Financial Speculation

http://www.amazon.com/Financial-Speculation-Trading-Biases-Behaviour/dp/1905641990/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1329500845&sr=1-1

Two Speed World

http://www.amazon.com/Two-Speed-World-explosive-everything/dp/1906659702/ref=pd_sim_sbs_b_2

The Tangled World

http://www.amazon.com/Tangled-World-Understanding-connections-ebook/dp/B0060KQUJE/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1329500942&sr=1-1

The Depressing “Ten Times” Rule of Government Spending

I have followed UK government spending estimates versus outcomes for many years and it is quite appraent that when things go awry they do so in a spectacular manner – Often the Final Cost is ten times the initial estimate!

Here are some all too familiar and depressing examples

Scottish Parliament – £40m estimate. Actual cost £400m and the roof leaked within 3 weeks

Health Service IT – £3bn estimate – cancelled at £34bn!!!!!!

The unfolding car crash of the UK aircraft carriers – started at £3bn and now already through £7bn  and then with NO planes to fly off them!

Now our old friend the London Olympics – see extract below and the link to full article

The true cost of staging the 2012 Olympics is five times the figure given when London won the bid in 2005.

A Sky investigation has revealed the final cost for the Games will be more than £12bn.

However, associated costs could make the bill as high as £24bn – a staggering 10 times the original estimate.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/sky-investigation-olympics-bill-tops-055923816.html

One can only wonder whether the High Speed Train link estimated at £16 billion could really balloon to £160 billion !!?? My guess it will shelved once its sheer folly is fully appreciated – if not look out!!!

 

Euro Break Up – My Current View

It seems to me that Greece is important not because of the debt, but if it leaves the euro.

In some ways a Greek Exit (Already being dubbed Grexit) is both a threat and the saviour of the euro. The threat is if it leaves the whole thing falls apart – the saving grace is with Greece out of the way the euro becomes more stable and stronger.

My hunch is that the Greeks will leave (not this w/end but I would guess in 2012) and that Portugal will as well (somewhat after). The key issues will then be Spain and Italy but it may be that the euro picks up as it slowly retreats to its natural size of being a Deutschemark zone (which it always has been but was overextended) The Germans cannot manage and/or are unwilling to pay for the current DEM zone but  a smaller one may suit them perfectly?

One problem though such a “tighter euro” would be much more valued and would soar on the foreign exchanges. This would not be in Germany’s narrow national interest but would be very beneficial to a core Europe

So it’s the old question: Will it be a German Europe or a European Germany?

My Page on Amazon

See

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Gerald-Ashley/e/B0034QJF8U/ref=ntt_athr_dp_pel_1